Archive I

(I) Currency Boards, Dollarization and Monetary Integration
Papers on Currency Boards: Date File format
"The Clearing and Settlement of Renminbi in Hong Kong" 26 March 2014 PDF
"Modern Currency Boards as Embedded Options" 1 June 2012 PDF
"Stabilisation of the Exchange Rate"  ( A historical memo for the Hong Kong Government to deliberate about the link back in 1983. The  proposal was "neither novel nor untried".) 1983 PDF
"A target-zone model with two types of assets" (with Yue Ma, Matthew S. Yiu, and Wai-Yip Alex Ho) December 2010 PDF
"An Analytical Framework for the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics under Strong Capital Inflows" (with Matthew S. Yiu, Wai-Yip Alex Ho and Yue Ma) 26 July 2010 PDF
"Reading Krugman and realising my AEL model was superior" 21 March 2010 PDF
"Currency Board Systems and Hong Kong's Evolving Arrangements" 29 September 2009 PPT
"The convertibility zone and operations to remove market anomalies" 6 June 2005 PDF
"A quick note on multiple equilibria under a currency board regime" 26 May 2005 PDF
"Optimum Currency Area for Mainland China and Hong Kong? Variance and Shocks Decomposition Tests" (For an earlier working paper version at the HKIMR, click here.) March 2004 PDF
"Fiscal deficit, bonds and currency board" (3/3/03) "Addendum" (5/3/03) "Postscript" (25/3/03) 3  March 2003 MS Word  PDF
"How a Currency Board Fixes the Exchange Rate in a Crisis", with Yue Ma   (A paper presented in Session G "Financial Crises, Policy Responses and Reforms" of  the  Second Biennial Conference of the Hong Kong Economic Assoication, Hong Kong Baptist University , 16-17 December 2002. ) 16 December 2002 PDF
"Currency Boards on the Way to Monetary Unions: The Doubly Unplanned Case of Hong Kong " (in Urmas Sepp, Martti Randveer  (editors ) Alternative Monetary Regimes in Entry to EMU, Bank of Estonia.) November  2002 PDF
"From "One Country, Two Systems" to Monetary Integration?"  September 2002 PDF
"Liquidity management, two-way CU and deposit reserves with averaging provisions: A technical note" (See also a later short piece: "Buffers for the link: A graphical note"  (15 October 2003).) 2 December 2001 PDF
"Objectives, Governance and Accountability of Central Banks"  ( a presentation at a training course of the HKMA)   21 November 2001 PDF
"One Country, Two Monetary Systems: An Eclectic Essay"  (For the PowerPoint presentation I used at the conference, click here. For a report on the conference in the October 8 issue of the IMF Survey, click here and read pages 318-320. The paper was subsequently published as "One country, two monetary systems: Hong Kong and China", in Suthiphand Chirathivat, Emil-Maria Claassen and Jurgen Schroeder (eds.), East Asia's Monetary Future: Integration in the Global Economy, Edward Elgar Publishing, December 2004, pp.42-60.)  6 September 2001 PDF
"The Evolution and Prospects of the Hong Kong CBA" (Any yawning reader by now has my full sympathy.)   8 May 2000 PDF
"Commitment to and Exit Strategies from a CBA" (Oh, Tallinn! Here I return.) 6 May 2000 PDF
"The Currency Board Arrangement in Hong Kong, China: Viability and Optimality Through the Crisis (part of a report of the Asian Development Bank)" 1999 PDF
"The HKMA's Convertibility Undertaking is Not an Insurance Instrument" (If I may, just a simple remark at the "real" beginning of  new millennium, 30 January 2001 to be exact, (and quite a long time after the one-way CU rate converged to 7.80 on 12 August 2000): I wonder how, with the expiry of an alleged "legal time contract" which in my view had never existed, one could still regard the present reformed exchange rate system to be consistent with the Chan-Chen model, the late Merton Miller's vision, or an intertemporal CB of any sort, Any further response and proposal from my academic friends at the HKU, the HKUST and the City University to fix the system, with the disappearance of what they called the "eighth measure"? Or did it, the completed 500-day, "one pip a calendar day", sliding depreciation programme really matter? I consider it as a side-show at best; but remain open minded.) 15 October 1999 PDF
"The Robustness of Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System as a Currency Board Arrangement" , with Chor-yiu Sin and Yuk-shing Cheng, paper presented in the 54th European Meeting of the Econometric Society held at Santiago de Compostela, Spain on 29 August - 1 September 1999. (You may appreciate my predicament in Madrid, before flying to that deeply religious and enchanting town, if you don't mind having dinner at 11:00pm with the outside temperature just falling below 40 degrees C. There would be plenty of cool white wine though.) August 1999 PDF
"Legal Frameworks of Currency Board Regimes"  August 1999 PDF
"The November 1998 Conference: Some Pertinent Points"  12 March 1999 PDF
"Technical Note on the Seven Technical Measures"  14 November 1998 HTML
"A Critical Comment on Government-sponsored Dollarization as a Rescue"  (Health warning: it was an off-hand piece on a controversial subject that was not intended for formalities outside the cyberspace. I spent only two nights on it. Somehow very  respectable scholars and analysts thought it's worth quoting.  So if you prefer to see it in other more elegant  formats, try Roubini, Geocities, or Ceri-sciencespo  For a comment in Spanish from an editorial in El Salvador, click here. )  26 October 1998 HTML
"HKMA Adviser Sees Lending Window As Key Change In System" (Dow Jones Newswires) 25 September 1998 HTML
"Welcome on Board the AEL Model, Hong Kong, but ......" (Don't smile yet, Argentina.) 14 September 1998 HTML
"Fixing the Exchange Rate through a Currency Board Arrangement: Efficiency Risk, Systemic Risk and Exit Cost" (Wonderful Kitakyushu, which narrowly missed the US atomic bombs half of a century ago. But I worked so hard to react to the unfolding great monetary event in Hong Kong, pen-wise and via the IDD and the fax machine (and thanks for impeccable Japanese efficiency and courtesy), that I missed a lunch and a few sessions of the conference.) 4-5 September 1998 PDF
"Why I Support the Hong Kong Government's Stock Market Intervention" (before the cliff-hanger in the last trading day of that terrifying August. See a press comment on Asiaweek quoting supporting and critical views.) 25 August 1998 HTML
"Handling Credit Crunch under Hong Kong's Currency Board System" 6 August 1998 HTML
"Is a Currency Board System Optimal for Hong Kong?" (I know it was "heretical", and probably socially sub-optimal, during that very difficult  time. But I made some amends later without compromising my conscience.) 18 May 1998 HTML
"The Hong Kong Government's Review Report: An Interpretation and a Response " "Report on Financial Market Review"  Thank you, HKU Library, for preserving historical records outside official efforts. 4 May 1998 HTML
" Indonesian Currency Board? Two Questions to Answer" (Two years after our (me and my wife's) first  trip to this incredibly attractive but somewhat unsettling and mysterious land. Joanne had a sun-stroke on the Christmas day, before flying to Bali! Our geographic and climatic presumptions were literally thrown out of the window.  Well, these have nothing to do with currency board economics. ) 16 February 1998 HTML
"How Credible was the Hong Kong Link in the East Asian Crisis?" 11 February 1998 PDF
"Currency Board Complications: the AEL Model for Hong Kong?" 9 February 1998 HTML
"Currency Board the Answer to Rate Stability" 31 October 1997 HTML
"A Study of the Linked Exchange Rate System and Policy Options for Hong Kong: Executive Summary" (The origin of it all, in English at least. The first Chinese (and less knowledgeable) version was as early as 1983, and there were several related comments. I still couldn't figure out why I had not put my ideas in English earlier.) October 1996 HTML
有關貨幣局制度之中文文章 日期 檔案類型
"香港联系汇率制度的前世、今生与末来" 2005年12月17日 PDF
"內地及香港的匯率制度與經濟發展" 2003年12月5日 PDF
"財赤、債券與貨幣局制度" 2003年3月10日 MS Word PDF
"貨幣發行局制度的法律架構" 1999年8月 PDF
"超越AEL模式的貨幣局制度--浸大國際研討會後記" 1998年12月21日 HTML
"穩定金融第一步──初評金管局七大措施" (寫於日本北九州市的原文文稿) 1998年9月6日 HTML
"香港貨幣局制度的命運" 1998年9月2日 HTML  PDF
"通過貨幣局制度來鎖定匯率" 1998年8月21日 PDF
"從亞洲金融危機看香港及內地對應之道" 1998年5月12日 HTML
"亞金融風暴與香港聯繫匯率" 1998年3月21日 MS Word
"套戥、保險與改制成本" 1998年2月16日 HTML
"衝擊聯繫匯率?何懼之有?---現代貨幣局制度的神話故事" 1997年8月4日 MS Word
"金融風暴,誰主浮沉?" 1997年10月31日 HTML
"香港聯繫匯率制度檢討與改革建議: 報告摘要" 1996年10月 PDF
"聯繫匯率衝擊的教訓" 1984年7月9日 PDF
"聯繫匯率制度的運作機能" 1984年7月 PDF
"固定匯率與黃金本位" 1984年2月 PDF
"最近修訂的匯率制度與香港經濟" 1984年1月 PDF
"評現鈔固定匯率制度"(我最"早"的一篇有關貨幣局的中文文章) 1983年11月 PDF

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