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Archive

(I) Currency Boards, Dollarization and Monetary Integration
Papers on Currency Boards: Date File format
"The Clearing and Settlement of Renminbi in Hong Kong" 26 March 2014 PDF
"Modern Currency Boards as Embedded Options" 1 June 2012 PDF
"Stabilisation of the Exchange Rate"  ( A historical memo for the Hong Kong Government to deliberate about the link back in 1983. The  proposal was "neither novel nor untried".) 1983 PDF
"A target-zone model with two types of assets" (with Yue Ma, Matthew S. Yiu, and Wai-Yip Alex Ho) December 2010 PDF
"An Analytical Framework for the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics under Strong Capital Inflows" (with Matthew S. Yiu, Wai-Yip Alex Ho and Yue Ma) 26 July 2010 PDF
"Reading Krugman and realising my AEL model was superior" 21 March 2010 PDF
"Currency Board Systems and Hong Kong's Evolving Arrangements" 29 September 2009 PPT
"The convertibility zone and operations to remove market anomalies" 6 June 2005 PDF
"A quick note on multiple equilibria under a currency board regime" 26 May 2005 PDF
"Optimum Currency Area for Mainland China and Hong Kong? Variance and Shocks Decomposition Tests" (For an earlier working paper version at the HKIMR, click here.) March 2004 PDF
"The Governance of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Comments on Some Topics" (Submission to the Panel on Financial Affairs, Legislative Council, for its meeting on 2 June 2003) 26 May 2003 PDF
"Fiscal deficit, bonds and currency board" (3/3/03) "Addendum" (5/3/03) "Postscript" (25/3/03) 3  March 2003 MS Word  PDF
"How a Currency Board Fixes the Exchange Rate in a Crisis", with Yue Ma   (A paper presented in Session G "Financial Crises, Policy Responses and Reforms" of  the  Second Biennial Conference of the Hong Kong Economic Assoication, Hong Kong Baptist University , 16-17 December 2002. ) 16 December 2002 PDF
"Currency Boards on the Way to Monetary Unions: The Doubly Unplanned Case of Hong Kong " (in Urmas Sepp, Martti Randveer  (editors ) Alternative Monetary Regimes in Entry to EMU, Bank of Estonia.) November  2002 PDF
"From "One Country, Two Systems" to Monetary Integration?"  September 2002 PDF
"Liquidity management, two-way CU and deposit reserves with averaging provisions: A technical note" (See also a later short piece: "Buffers for the link: A graphical note"  (15 October 2003).) 2 December 2001 PDF
"Objectives, Governance and Accountability of Central Banks"  ( a presentation at a training course of the HKMA)   21 November 2001 PDF
"One Country, Two Monetary Systems: An Eclectic Essay"  (For the PowerPoint presentation I used at the conference, click here. For a report on the conference in the October 8 issue of the IMF Survey, click here and read pages 318-320. The paper was subsequently published as "One country, two monetary systems: Hong Kong and China", in Suthiphand Chirathivat, Emil-Maria Claassen and Jurgen Schroeder (eds.), East Asia's Monetary Future: Integration in the Global Economy, Edward Elgar Publishing, December 2004, pp.42-60.)  6 September 2001 PDF
"The Evolution and Prospects of the Hong Kong CBA" (Any yawning reader by now has my full sympathy.)   8 May 2000 PDF
"Commitment to and Exit Strategies from a CBA" (Oh, Tallinn! Here I return.) 6 May 2000 PDF
"The Currency Board Arrangement in Hong Kong, China: Viability and Optimality Through the Crisis (part of a report of the Asian Development Bank)" 1999 PDF
"The HKMA's Convertibility Undertaking is Not an Insurance Instrument" (If I may, just a simple remark at the "real" beginning of  new millennium, 30 January 2001 to be exact, (and quite a long time after the one-way CU rate converged to 7.80 on 12 August 2000): I wonder how, with the expiry of an alleged "legal time contract" which in my view had never existed, one could still regard the present reformed exchange rate system to be consistent with the Chan-Chen model, the late Merton Miller's vision, or an intertemporal CB of any sort, Any further response and proposal from my academic friends at the HKU, the HKUST and the City University to fix the system, with the disappearance of what they called the "eighth measure"? Or did it, the completed 500-day, "one pip a calendar day", sliding depreciation programme really matter? I consider it as a side-show at best; but remain open minded.) 15 October 1999 PDF
"The Robustness of Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System as a Currency Board Arrangement" , with Chor-yiu Sin and Yuk-shing Cheng, paper presented in the 54th European Meeting of the Econometric Society held at Santiago de Compostela, Spain on 29 August - 1 September 1999. (You may appreciate my predicament in Madrid, before flying to that deeply religious and enchanting town, if you don't mind having dinner at 11:00pm with the outside temperature just falling below 40 degrees C. There would be plenty of cool white wine though.) August 1999 PDF
"Legal Frameworks of Currency Board Regimes"  August 1999 PDF
"The November 1998 Conference: Some Pertinent Points"  12 March 1999 PDF
"Technical Note on the Seven Technical Measures"  14 November 1998 HTML
"A Critical Comment on Government-sponsored Dollarization as a Rescue"  (Health warning: it was an off-hand piece on a controversial subject that was not intended for formalities outside the cyberspace. I spent only two nights on it. Somehow very  respectable scholars and analysts thought it's worth quoting.  So if you prefer to see it in other more elegant  formats, try Roubini, Geocities, or Ceri-sciencespo  For a comment in Spanish from an editorial in El Salvador, click here. )  26 October 1998 HTML

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"HKMA Adviser Sees Lending Window As Key Change In System" (Dow Jones Newswires) 25 September 1998 HTML
"Welcome on Board the AEL Model, Hong Kong, but ......" (Don't smile yet, Argentina.) 14 September 1998 HTML
"Fixing the Exchange Rate through a Currency Board Arrangement: Efficiency Risk, Systemic Risk and Exit Cost" (Wonderful Kitakyushu, which narrowly missed the US atomic bombs half of a century ago. But I worked so hard to react to the unfolding great monetary event in Hong Kong, pen-wise and via the IDD and the fax machine (and thanks for impeccable Japanese efficiency and courtesy), that I missed a lunch and a few sessions of the conference.) 4-5 September 1998 PDF
"Why I Support the Hong Kong Government's Stock Market Intervention" (before the cliff-hanger in the last trading day of that terrifying August. See a press comment on Asiaweek quoting supporting and critical views.) 25 August 1998 HTML
"Handling Credit Crunch under Hong Kong's Currency Board System" 6 August 1998 HTML
"Is a Currency Board System Optimal for Hong Kong?" (I know it was "heretical", and probably socially sub-optimal, during that very difficult  time. But I made some amends later without compromising my conscience.) 18 May 1998 HTML
"The Hong Kong Government's Review Report: An Interpretation and a Response " "Report on Financial Market Review"  Thank you, HKU Library, for preserving historical records outside official efforts. 4 May 1998 HTML
" Indonesian Currency Board? Two Questions to Answer" (Two years after our (me and my wife's) first  trip to this incredibly attractive but somewhat unsettling and mysterious land. Joanne had a sun-stroke on the Christmas day, before flying to Bali! Our geographic and climatic presumptions were literally thrown out of the window.  Well, these have nothing to do with currency board economics. ) 16 February 1998 HTML
"How Credible was the Hong Kong Link in the East Asian Crisis?" 11 February 1998 PDF
"Currency Board Complications: the AEL Model for Hong Kong?" 9 February 1998 HTML
"Currency Board the Answer to Rate Stability" 31 October 1997 HTML
"A Study of the Linked Exchange Rate System and Policy Options for Hong Kong: Executive Summary" (The origin of it all, in English at least. The first Chinese (and less knowledgeable) version was as early as 1983, and there were several related comments. I still couldn't figure out why I had not put my ideas in English earlier.) October 1996 HTML
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(II) Competition Policies: Comprehensive and Sector-specific
Papers on Competition Policy Date File format
"Anti-competitive Behaviour and Competition Law ¤ÏÄvª§¦æ¬°»PÄvª§ªk" April 2009 PDF
"Anti-competitive Behaviour and Competition Policy: A Review" 15 & 16 November 2006 PDF
"Consumer Protection in Hong Kong" (prepared for the Melbourne Office of  ACCC. But I had to cut short my trip and did not make the presentation.) 24  September 2001 PPT PDF
"Competition Regulation in Hong Kong" (a presentation at ACCC. A summary of the talk appeared in the ACCC Journal, No.36, Sept-Oct. 2001, pp.14-18.) 18 September 2001 PPT PDF
"Alternative Competition Regimes",  with Ron Cameron 4 January 2001 PDF
"General Competition Law versus Sector-specific Competition Policies: A Few More Remarks"  18 December 2000 PDF
"Competition and Network Economics: The Examples of Credit Cards and Debit Cards"  Click to see the Executive Summary or the Report on Complaints Against the 'Easy Payment System' released on 10 August 2000 by the Consumer Council. 27 November 2000 PDF
"The Case for a Competition Institution in Hong Kong"  (see my summary)   For a contrary view and an official defense of the sector-specific approach, see the speech of the former Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong SAR Government on 15 December 2000 and the article of the present Financial Secretary on the Financial Times on 13 July 2001. Judge for yourself. For the concluding statement of the IMF's Article IV Consultation in 1999, click here (watch paragraph 16). For its concluding statement in 2000, click here (watch paragraph 6(iii)). 2 November 2000 PDF
"Petrol Price Competition Across Geographic Markets in Hong Kong?" Have you ever driven in Sydney or Ottawa?) Click to see the summary of the Study of the Motor Gasoline, Diesel and LPG Markets in Hong Kong released on 12 January 2000 by the Consumer Council.  17 January 2000 PDF
"The Provision of Lift Maintenance Services in Hong Kong"  8 May1999 PDF
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(III) Hong Kong, China and the Rest of the World (Issues)
Papers on Hong Kong's ''Dual Economy'' Date File format
"Hong Kong Economy: Introductory notes"  September 2008 PDF
"The Asymmetric Economic Integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China"  15 April 2008 PDF
"The Hong Kong Economy under Asymmetrical Integration: Structural Transformation or dissolution?"  Fall 2007 PDF
"Border? What border?"  26 August 2007 PDF
"The Hong Kong economy: Structural transformation or dissolution?"  24 October 2006 PDF
"Dual economy in Hong Kong: A quick explanation"   20 February 2005 HTML
"Hong Kong of China, Hong Kong of the World" (For a  report by Ta Kung Pao of my presentation in Chinese at the seminar, click here.)  15 September 2003 PDF
"Economics of SARS in Context" 2 July 2003 PPT PDF
"Hong Kong's Economic Strategy Reconsidered" 7 April 2003 MS Word  PDF
"Fiscal deficit, bonds and currency board" (3/3/03) "Addendum" (5/3/03) "Postscript" (25/3/03) 3  March 2003 MS Word  PDF
"A clarifying note on dual economy" 24 June 2002 MS Word 
"Hong Kong in the 21st Century: Sustainable Economic, Social and  Political Developments---Executive Summary in English" (A Report by the Hong Kong Foundation for Social Democracy. I was one of the writers of the Report, the full version of which is available in Chinese. There is a special collection of discussions in Chinese on the issues of the "dual economy" on  the site. ) October 2001 MS Word

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"The Political Economy of Unhappiness" with an epilogue on 18 March 2001 21 January 2001 PDF
"A Few Practical Ideas about the Hong Kong Economy" (including that on the "dual economy".) 25 October 1999 PDF
"The Hong Kong Economy in the Midst of the Financial Crisis" 26 September 1998 HTML
"The Hong Kong Economy and the 1997 Transition" 29 June 1997 MS Word
"The Economy" October 1994 MS Word
"Hong Kong's Future Development in a Changing Environment" ("Really pessimistic!", according to a lady who is now a top Government official. Those were not my words, so the rule about being proper speech-wise doesn't apply here. As history unfolds, I actually erred on the optimistic side.) November 1993 HTML
"Income Distribution" 1993 PDF
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Technical and Non-technical Papers on the Chinese Economy Date File Format
"Internationalisation and full convertibility of the Renminbi" 17 July 2010 PDF
"FDI-driven Trade and Economic Growth in China", with Wong Pui-yan, Pennie October 2009 PDF
"Dragon Weathering the Storm: Blue Sky Ahead?"at the Conference on "Global and China's Economy and Hong Kong's Future Development" organized by the Central Policy Unit, HKSARG  "RTHK Webcast"   29 September 2008 PPT
"The Influence of Current Account Imbalance on Money and Price Stability in China" (with Yue Ma)  (A paper presented at the 8th Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop)  23 September 2003 PDF
"Inflation Targeting in China?" (For the summary, click here.) October 2002 PDF
"The Full Convertibility of Renminbi: Sequencing and Influence", with Shucheng Liu, Zhijun Zhao, Yue Ma, Matthew S. Yiu and Yak-yeow Kueh  April 2002 PDF
"Banking Deregulation and Macroeconomic Impact in China: A Theoretical Analysis and Implications of WTO Accession to the Mainland and Hong Kong", with Zhijun Zhao, Yue Ma, Yak-yeow Kueh, Matthew S. Yiu and Shucheng Liu  April 2002 PDF
"Towards the Full Convertibility of the Renminbi?" 1997 PDF
"Inertia, Resistance and Forced Innovation: A Longer View of China's Recent Financial Reforms" (1996) (A briefer version was publish in 1998 by the International Journal of Public Administration.) 1996 PDF
"What Soft Landing Means in China" late summer 1994 PDF
"Towards Full Convertibility? China's Foreign Exchange Reforms" August 1994 PDF
"China's Tax Reforms of 1994: Breakthrough or Compromise?" with Cheng Yuk-shing Summer 1994 PDF
"Towards a System of Modernized Macroeconomic Control in China?" late 1993 PDF
"The Foreign Exchange System in China: Review and Outlook" 23 September 1993 PDF
"The Endogeneity of the Money Supply in China: An Empiricial Test" May 1991 PDF
"Is the Quantity Theory of Money Relevant to China?" circa 1991 PDF
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Papers on China-Hong Kong Political and Economic Relations Date File format
"From 'One Country, Two Systems' to Monetary Integration?" September 2002 PDF
"The Integration of China and Hong Kong into the World Economy: A Prototype Global Econometric Model" with Yue Ma   September 2000 PDF
"The Economic Link-up of Hong Kong and Guangdong: Structural and Developmental Problems", with  Cheng Yuk-shing. (You've been properly warned.) July 1996 PDF
"The Tightrope Among Nationalism, Democracy and Pragmatism" 21 February 1993 HTML
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Papers on Crises and Other Economic Issues Date File format
"Global Financial Challenge: Post-Tsunami Era" 20 September 2011

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"Two-Speed Recovery under Tectonic Effect?  --  Comments on IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific" 28 April 2011

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"Behind Disasters: A Layman's Impressions" 3 April 2011

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"The Jasmine Revolution and demography"  27 February 2011

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"Down Wave Act II"  6 May 2010

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"History unfolding - economic crisis in an uneven world"  4 May 2005

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"Delayed calls: the paradox of demand side deflation versus supply side inflation"  16 May 2004

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"A note on spatial perspectives: Tacit knowledge, embeddedness and clusters"  15 February 2004

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"Long Waves: An Update"  30 July 2003 MS Word

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"In the Shadow of Unsynchronized Long Waves---From Bubbles to Disinflation to Debt-deflation"  29 October 2002 MS Word

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"Kondratieff Long Waves Unsynchronized---KLUWs---at Last?" (A " new" interpretation of  Kondratieff long waves.)  8 April 2001 MS Word

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"Behind Economic Globalization and the Amazing IT Stock Boom"  7 February 2000 PDF
"Long Wave, Globalization and Technological Salvation" (Kondratieff long waves revisited, after a decade.) 9 March 1999 MS Word
"From Miracle to Crisis: The Role of Domestic and International Money" 6 March 1998 PDF
"Against 'big bang' in economic transition: normative and positive arguments" 1996 PDF
"My Views on the Present Maladies of the World Economy and Recommendations to the Economic Summit of the Developed Countries" (This was the only piece in English that I wrote about the Kondratieff long waves in the 1980s.)  October 1988 PDF
"Testing Money-Income Causality in South Korea" (An early academic exercise published on the Hong Kong Economic Papers. I lost the original long time ago.)  December 1986 PDF
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